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Truth or Truthiness: Distinguishing Fact from Fiction
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Teacher tenure is a problem. Teacher tenure is a solution. Fracking is safe. Fracking causes earthquakes. Our kids are over-tested. Our kids are not tested enough. We read claims like these in the newspaper every day, often with no justification other than 'it feels right'. How can we figure out what is right? Escaping from the clutches of truthiness begins with one simple question: 'what is the evidence?' With his usual verve and flair, Howard Wainer shows how the sceptical mind-set of a data scientist can expose truthiness, nonsense, and outright deception. Using the tools of causal inference he evaluates the evidence, or lack thereof, supporting claims in many fields, with special emphasis in education. This wise book is a must-read for anyone who has ever wanted to challenge the pronouncements of authority figures and a lucid and captivating narrative that entertains and educates at the same time.
- Sales Rank: #69654 in eBooks
- Published on: 2016-02-29
- Released on: 2015-12-01
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review
"This book is like the proverbial bag of potato chips. It's impossible to stop reading after just one of its fun and thought-provoking examples of statistical reasoning."
Andrew Gelman, Columbia University
"Howard Wainer persuasively argues that you cannot be an informed citizen unless you understand the new data science. Using examples and anecdotes from education, medicine, and elsewhere, he arms readers with tools they can use to make better decisions and a better world. And he does it with the ease, charm, and brilliance of the originator of truthiness."
Arthur E. Wise, President Emeritus, National Council for the Accreditation of Teacher Education
"[This is] compelling reading on contemporary topics that exemplifies how to think clearly about the busy world around us ... Wainer gets more clever over the years, finding deeper anecdotes, discovering better quotes, and writing with more grace than ever."
Ben Shneiderman, University of Maryland
"Wainer has taken a leap forward with his new book, Truth or Truthiness. He has shown that he can take on complex issues using the basic premise that our new societal norm addresses policy solely through inference while lacking supportive evidence. With his usual interesting and direct style, Wainer looks at this lack of data support in examining societal issues, especially education. This is truly a compelling read and I think should be required reading for those who set educational policy."
Kurt Landgraf, President and CEO, Educational Testing Service, 2000-2013
"Howard Wainer was an expert witness in cases where I defended public school teachers who were accused of changing students' answers on standardized tests. I implored him to explain his theories in terms that would be understandable to lay people. Truth and Truthiness makes clear that he took this to heart."
Keith J. Zimmerman, Kahn, Smith and Collins, P. A., Baltimore
About the Author
Howard Wainer is a Distinguished Research Scientist at the National Board of Medical Examiners. He has published more than four hundred articles and chapters in scholarly journals and books.
Most helpful customer reviews
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Exploding ignorance
By David Wineberg
So much of what we know is just wrong. From internet facts to everybody knows that, we make things up and believe them, with nothing backing them but the knowledge that we all agree we knew that. And yet, by shifting slightly, Howard Wainer says we can outsleuth Sherlock Holmes.
Wainer demonstrates it in a remarkable lawsuit where he was called into aid a “professional license” exam taker who was falsely accused of cheating. Wainer showed the evaluation system, which looked terrific at first blush, was actually terribly inaccurate and unjustifiable. Wainer compares it to mammography, a parallel system that shows the same misguidance. In mammography, false positives rule. In breast cancer cases, only five percent of positive mammographies represent actual cancer. He shows this from mammography’s own impressive (at first) numbers. Testing for cheaters – no better. Ruining someone’s career over such lousy methods – unacceptable. Who said statisticians couldn’t be cool?
Wainer shows convincingly that fracking does cause earthquakes, that tenure in education is actually cheaper than hiring annually, that global numbers predict the breaking of sports records, and that the whole field of education is rife with truthiness based on gut feeling (and outright criminally rigging results).
He says there are three reasons why people won’t listen to the facts:
-A lack of understanding of the methods and the power of the Science of Uncertainty
-A conflict between what is true what is wished to be true
-An excessive dimness of mind that prevents connecting the dots of evidence to yield a clear picture of likely outcome.
The purpose – and value - of Truth and Truthiness is in its applicability. Wainer’s approach achieves results without computer power or advanced mathematics. The conclusions are self-evident if we follow the data. Just thinking this way – in the manner of data specialists – means better decisions for all of us. And so he rightly calls the concluding chapter Do Try This At Home.
Just don’t pick an argument with this man.
David Wineberg
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Statistics made entertaining? Yes, it’s possible. Let’s test it.
By Steve G
I loved this book. It’s not so much about statistics as about testing vs guessing. Author Howard Wainer writes in a conversational manner and with a keen sense of humor. The book was hard to put down. As I was reading the book I noted that a little over two chapters were missing from the advanced reader copy I had received. My first thought was too bad because I loved the book so far. My second thought was that when I write my review can I assume that the missing pages were as good as the pages that were there? I thought this because Wainer goes into a lot of detail about missing data. My third thought was that Wainer had already taught me to think like a data scientist. I strongly recommend this book for anyone who is involved in research.
As a postscript, I received the full book from the publisher and as suspected, the missing pages are as good as the rest of the book.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
A book by a real statistician for the rest of us
By Leland Wilkinson
There are plenty of books on statistics for the popular market. Many of them try to make statistics exciting but end up being boring or, worse, full of misinformation. Howard Wainer is in that handful of writers (Daniel Kahneman, Jordan Ellenberg, Andrew Gelman, ...) who know what they are talking about and are able to explain it to the rest of us in ordinary language. This book dares to spend a chapter on Donald Rubin's breakthrough on the intricacies of causal inference, on Hartigan's Inside Out Plots, and on how statisticians deal with missing data. If you want to learn how a statistician thinks (forget formulas), then this is your book.
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